16/7/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington, Flemington Cup Day

Flemington will host a nine-race card on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out four meters for the whole circuit.

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Race 1. (12:00) Trevor Clarke Hcp 1000m

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Back Me

Peter Moody seems to have a sharp one here in the form of 12 Tapin ‘Three (Rate now: $ 4.20 TOP ODDS), a daughter of Zoustar. On June 22, there was a set of jumpouts at Pakenham at Synthetic and she was one of the morning standouts. Fast time, crossed behind them before it peeled, clicked up, and her switching speed was impressive. Glad to be in her corner.

Danger

3 boys (Rate now: $ 12.00 TOP ODDS) is an interesting runner. Returning to racing as a gelding for James Cummings, having not run since the fall when he finished second at Ballarat. Became gelding and his two attempts in Sydney have been sharp. Outside of his overall form, he has to rate highly in a race like this.

Long shot

8 Fly nicely (Rate now: $ 21.00 TOP ODDS) will be up at the front and try hard. A little unwanted in betting when she drove on Moe last time, but she gave them a slap from the go and was way too good. She has always shown promise since day one. Now that she has a win on the board, can she continue with that?

Race 2. (12:35) Ken Cox Hcp 1700m

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Back Me

5 Thalassophile (Rate now: $ 4.50 TOP ODDS) runs as if she wants to eat 1700m for Chris Waller. Tossed something in the deep end of the Silver Bowl Final two weeks ago and I thought he was very good from behind behind the impressive winner Arran Bay. That shape reads very well and can hopefully settle closer to the bud.

Danger

10 Oceana Blue (Rate now: $ 3.50 TOP ODDS) is a lovely horse for Peter Moody. He ran over 2000m at Flemington several weeks ago, where I’m not sure he was completely happy on the wet track, but he held on and was good in the defeat behind Texas Tea. Hopefully more firm foothold for him, and if he can sit closer to the bud, he will take the beating.

Long shot

2 hearts and minds (Rate now: $ 17.00 TOP ODDS) is a Patrick Payne-trained three-year-old who resumed at the test site at Geelong and I liked the ticker he showed on speed, fended them off late and was an impressive winner. The request is 1700m but stable is flying and has good upside to come.

Race 3. (13:10) Rmbl Invest. Rising Stars-Bm70 1600m

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Back Me

1 Zousonic (Rate now: $ 4.80 TOP ODDS) has a terrible racing pattern, but she knocks on the door to win. Running two weeks ago in the Leilani final and in a sit / sprint, for a backmarker, she had no chance, producing the best late splits behind Megamea. Have won on the mile and I think has a class advantage.

Danger

6 Rusutsu (Rate now: $ 11.00 TOP ODDS) is a step forward for Peter Moody and I do not think she is far from a victory. She ran over this trip against the boys at Sandown last start and she was solid from the pace behind Rainbow Thief, finishing as number four. Working up to a win … would not shock if it came here.

Long shot

Fitter and up to the mile are two big crosses for 7 Spirit Of Gold (Rate now: $ 15.00 TOP ODDS). Peter Moody trained mare, who resumed in the Leilani final, a tough enough task as it is for a permanent mare, but given that the pace was not hot, she was no chance, so forgive the effort down the field. Fitter, up to mile, I expect improvement.

Race 4. (13:45) Flemington Cup 2800m

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Back Me

3 Through Irish eyes (Rate now: $ 2.60 TOP ODDS) is a real stayer who brings the strong lines of form. Ran in the Brisbane Cup several weeks ago at Eagle Farm and looked like a winner but was snatched late by the Irish successor. He does not want this to be a sit / sprint given his lack of speed. If this is going to be survival of the fittest, it’s him.

Danger

If the race from two weeks ago has not beaten him, I think 6 Scary (Rate now: $ 3.20 TOP ODDS) can take this out. He was massive on this track last time and sat three / four wide in the first part of the race before finding the front. He was a sitting shot in a fair way and was only run down late in a match effort. More economical run this time he will take the beating.

Long shot

2 Sweet Thomas (Rate now: $ 12.00 TOP ODDS) is holding a shout in contradiction. He found the pitch was too wet in the Sunny Coast Cup last time, but he made up without threatening. Back on a firmer deck and up for a more appropriate ride, I expect improvement from this veteran stay.

Race 5. (14:20) Byerley Hcp 1800m

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Back Me

4 Verifier (Rate now: $ 5.50) looks like a horse with good abilities and he will love to get up to 1800m. Debuted over 1400m here several weeks ago where he flopped out at the end of the race and was never a factor but when he first turned on his last 100m was very good, screaming of a horse that wanted more ground which he gets , and if he can get closer in the race, he will take the beating.

Danger

There are enough negatives to say 1 Quang Tri (Rate now: $ 2.10) is too short, but in pure form it is she who must strike. Wide no coverage in the Taj Rossi final, but she was still way too good for them. The negative IMO is that she is now gaining weight, she is pulled wide again, 1800m a query and the horse she beat last time, King’s Consort, does not have a big heart I think. Hard to beat the shape as a whole, but could I entertain myself money? Absolutely not.

Long shot

13 Winning bids (Rate now: 19.00 USD) is an improvement in conflict. She ran in the Taj Rossi final and did not exactly fire a shot, but remarkably she gets L Meech on board and from gate 1, with Blinkers on, I suppose they will sit more forward and out of her debut race she is in with a shout at a price.

Race 6. (15:00) Sir Eugene Gorman (Bm78) 1000m

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Back Me

9 squid games (Rate now: $ 2.15) has a terrible racing pattern, but the engine under the bonnet is good. He did not get many horses with the trip to Caulfield three weeks ago, and his pattern, but even if it took into account that, he would not pick up Inundation. If he can settle down closer and get clear air, he will be dangerous.

Danger

8 Miss Dior (Rate now: 10.00 USD) deserves a second chance. She resumed for a few weeks back in Randwick, where she led at a solid gallop, coped with pressure and just felt the squeeze late behind the Hulk. Had only one soft sample leading in, so one would think there are improvements on the way and will not mind a rain-affected track.

Long shot

13 Agrimoni (Rate now: 13.00 USD) have fresh legs and I think is dangerous. Four weeks between the races for Will Clarken, since he ran over 1200m at Murray Bridge, where he was wide all the way through and felt the squeeze late behind Montign. Back to the 1000m I find interesting, but his best is clearly good enough to take this out.

Race 7. (15:40) Vrc Members Hcp 2000m

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Back Me

I said after the first up win of 1 Mankayan (Rate now: $ 4.40) that he could be the 2022 version of the Persan / Grand Promenade. Continue to win, go through the grades and get to a Melbourne Cup. Lots of lasting dominance around his victory at Sandown last time, keeping in mind that he was several weeks between races so he has an improvement on the way and up to 2000m is a big cross.

Danger

11 Blue cup (Rate now: $ 4.80) is a promising import to the Maher / Eustace camp. Got his Australian debut behind Lyrical Lad a few weeks back at Caulfield over 1700m and he warmed up very nicely for the task eventually when he finished fourth. Like the rise of the trip and has a huge upside.

Long shot

10 Herman Hesse (Rate now: 10.00 USD) may be an improvement in conflict. He resumed behind Lyrical Lad three weeks ago, where he just seemed to need the run when he was down on the track behind the Stokes gallop. I reckon he’s waiting for the 2500m races in The Valley so he may need this race, but he has a touch of quality.

Race 8. (16:15) KA Morrison Hcp 1400m

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Back Me

7 Daytona Bay (Rate now: $ 3.00) looks hard to beat here. Impressive first victory at Pakenham over 1200m before three weeks ago he climbed up to 1400m at Caulfield in a slow running race and was very good against the running form behind Cardinal Gem in a race where the form was crossed by a week later in the Silver Bowl Finals . Hard to beat here.

Danger

4 Browser (Rate now: $ 4.20) is holding a shout. He resumed in Creswick and was far from the disgrace behind some smart guy, a race won by Passive Aggressive. Fitter and up to 1400m with D Oliver to steer, he is Stakes placed on this course / distance, so he has to rate high here.

Long shot

5 My Yankee Girl (Rate now: $ 5.00) looks like a smart filly to John Salanitri. She was set for the Rivette final here two weeks ago, and under a peach from McNeil, she was able to wear them down from the move and boned as it spoke to winning again. Heading in the right direction, she’s hard to hit again.

Race 9. (16:47) LV Lachal (Bm84) 1200m

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Back Me

13 Tamerlane (Rate now: 6.00 USD) at the top in a difficult get out. There are several weeks between the races since he resumed in Randwick, where he was good late from the move behind the dominant winner Waihaha Falls, who struck out on Saturday. Can handle wet surfaces and is difficult to withstand, I would suggest.

Danger

7 flowering star (Rate now: $ 5.50) bursts to win a race for Team Yargi and I think she’s getting a great chance here. She got black variety placement two weeks ago in the spring final here, and worked purposefully home from behind behind Sirius Suspect. If she’s within reach 300m out, I think she’s in the final to overtake them.

Long shot

5 Gauch (Rate now: 26.00 USD) should appreciate a firmer foothold. Peter Moody trained gelding, who resumed on a very testing Sandown track a few weeks ago, and he struggled to lift his feet under the conditions behind the very shapely Ashford Street. Safe and up to 1200 m, firmer tires, excellent record number two, he can jump back.

BEST OFFER: Run four number 3 through Irish eyes

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Mankayan

LONG SHOT: Race Five number 4 Verifier

Quaddie Tips (runs six to nine):

A leg: 7, 8, 9, 12, 13

Ben to: 1

Ben three: 3, 4, 5, 7

Fire legs: 4, 5, 7, 13

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